About
Vision
Analysis Opportunities
Delivery Strategy
Contact
Home > Analysis
     
 
Analysis

Borough Context
Local Context
Study Area Context
History
Existing Land Uses
Current Initiatives
Building Height
Building Form
Building Age
 Conservation Areas
Building Edges
Building Activity
Key Views
Permeability /Legibility
Landscape/Character
Environmental and Geotechnical issues
Existing Services
Roads: Strategic Context
Roads: Stategic constraints and issues
Study Area: Constraints and issues
Roads: 'do nothing' scenario
Public Transport Movement
Pedestrian and Cycle movement
Existing Housing Stock
Conclusions
 
   


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
     
 
Roads: The 'Do Nothing' Scenario
 
   

 

 
     
   
     

     
 

The ‘Do-Nothing’ Scenario

It is evident that, at peak times, much of the road network surrounding the Town Centre is at or very close to capacity. This is especially evident where traffic flow data shows very similar flows in both the morning and evening peaks, such as northbound onto Tyne Bridge. Comprehensive origin-destination data, to help analyse movement patterns, is being commissioned. Because no reliable data is currently available, it is not possible to say with any confidence how much of the traffic on the road network around Gateshead Town Centre is through traffic. However, assessment of traffic patterns implies that during the morning peak, traffic crossing the bridges in the northbound direction will largely not be related to Gateshead Town Centre. Counts in 2001 show that in excess of 3,300 vehicles crossed the Tyne Bridge northbound during the morning peak, and a further 400 vehicles crossed the High Level Bridge. This amounts to more than one vehicle every second. Traffic conditions are currently poor at peak times. Southbound queues on the Tyne Bridge and northbound queues on Gateshead Highway are already common, as is congestion around the Prince Consort Road / Bensham Road junction.

The road network has recently been upgraded to provide more capacity on the Tyne Bridge Link Road and Oakwellgate junction. However, it is not possible to see how further capacity improvements could now be made. Experience is demonstrating that it is not practical to ‘predict and provide’ road capacity, and because of the physical constraints in this area, this does not even seem possible without very major works, such as widening of the Tyne Bridge. Even a ‘do-maximum’ scenario, would therefore not be likely to include any substantial increase in the existing road capacity. Because traffic levels increase to utilise available capacity, it is reasonable to conclude that no sustainable future can be planned based on an increase in highway capacity.

Demand for travel is continuing to increase, as car ownership levels increase, and as property prices and standards of living increase, journey length can tend to increase. Central Government requires the use of TEMPRO traffic growth forecasts in the justification of new major schemes, and these forecasts have been used for a recent modelling exercise by Gateshead Council to help develop the road improvement schemes described above. Even the low growth forecast is for an increase in traffic of 8.6% between 2003 and 2014, the chosen assessment year. This is in addition to any new demand likely to be created as a result of any successful regeneration of Gateshead. Traffic modelling, and indeed a ‘common sense’ view, shows that only some of this growth will occur during the peak hour because it is already capacity limited; however, what cannot be accommodated during the current peak will either:-

  • Increase the length of existing queues;
  • Change journey time, causing longer peak periods;
  • Re-route, but there is limited opportunity for this; or
  • Relocate, changing one or more trip ends.

What is clear is that, without strategies in place to manage demand, demand will continue to exceed supply and that the situation will be exacerbated. Thus, by the end of the Regeneration Framework period, a ‘do-nothing’ movement scenario will most likely be one of severe congestion, with significant increases in journey times, for traffic accessing Gateshead and Newcastle. The recent VISSIM modelling exercise, which included a selection of proposed developments then being considered, indicated that background traffic growth combined with the new developments, leads to an increase in demand of about one-quarter. Delays could increase by up to one-third, and queue lengths increase several-fold. In summary, even if the road network were now to remain unchanged, there are demand management problems which need to be addressed, to ensure the vitality of Central Tyneside. The risk is whether demand management strategies can be successfully implemented within the Regeneration Framework timeframe – and be successful – to continue to promote Gateshead as an accessible, well connected centre for commerce, but whilst still enabling high quality walking links in and around the Town Centre. The apparent problem also creates an opportunity to utilise change for the better – and go one bold step further to achieve a step change in Gateshead’s offer.

 

 
   

 
..Site : SIARAD
Copyright 2003-2008